Daily technical analysis and forecast for 29 October 2026

Daily technical analysis and forecast for EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD, XAUUSD, US 500, and BTCUSD for 29 October 2026.

Each scenario on this page reflects the market structure on the H4 chart as of 10:00 AM UTC+3 on 29 October 2026. The assessment considers the current H4 chart structure, key support and resistance levels, the direction of the medium-term movement, and the prevailing fundamental backdrop.

EURUSD forecast

The main factor for EURUSD remains the divergence between monetary policy expectations for the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. Following its 28 October meeting, the Fed kept its interest rate in the 3.75–4.00% range, noting the resilience of the US economy and persistently elevated inflation. Two policymakers favoured raising rates, supporting expectations of an extended period of tight financial conditions.

Today, market participants are focusing on the forthcoming ECB decision, the preliminary estimate of US GDP, and the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. Higher US inflation could strengthen the dollar, while cautious ECB statements may limit a recovery in the euro. Energy prices, eurozone countries' fiscal prospects, and changes in government bond yields are additional factors. Together, they create conditions for heightened EURUSD volatility.

On the H4 chart, EURUSD remains in a downtrend. The market formed a downward wave to 1.1112 before correcting upwards to 1.1168. The current consolidation is taking place below this resistance and is viewed as a potential bearish continuation pattern.

The Elliott wave structure allows for another downward impulse. The wave matrix, with its pivot at 1.1222, remains the main reference point. Sellers retain the advantage while prices remain below this level.

The nearest targets are 1.1075 and the Price Envelope's lower boundary at 1.1033. Consolidation below the latter would bring 1.0899 and 1.0793 into focus. Interim corrective rises would not change the main scenario unless prices sustainably return above 1.1222.

For the upcoming trading session, a decline remains the preferred scenario following the completion of consolidation below 1.1168. Confirmation would come from an H4 candlestick closing below local support at 1.1112. US data releases could nevertheless cause brief moves against the prevailing direction. A recovery above 1.1168 would weaken the immediate selling signal and require a reassessment of the price structure.

EURUSD forecast scenario

USDJPY forecast

USDJPY movements are determined by a combination of sustained demand for the dollar and expectations concerning future Bank of Japan decisions. Following the Fed meeting, the US interest rate remained within the 3.75–4.00% range, while policymakers reaffirmed the need to control inflation risks. High US bond yields continue to support the appeal of dollar-denominated assets.

Meanwhile, the Japanese yen remains sensitive to the outlook for domestic monetary policy changes. The forthcoming BoJ meeting increases the likelihood of sharp exchange rate fluctuations, particularly if inflation forecasts or comments on further rate increases change.

Tokyo inflation figures are another factor. Accelerating consumer price growth could strengthen expectations of monetary tightening and support the yen. As USDJPY approaches elevated levels, market participants also remain alert to possible warnings from Japan's Ministry of Finance about excessive currency fluctuations. US GDP and PCE inflation data will also have a significant impact during the day.

On the H4 chart, USDJPY completed an upward move around 158.33 before entering a local consolidation range. The main support is at 157.64, with additional support at 157.44.

The upward wave matrix, with its pivot at 157.44, determines the near-term direction. While prices remain above this level, the structure allows for a renewed rise following the correction.

Within the Price Envelope, an initial test of its central line around 157.44–157.64 is expected, potentially followed by a rise towards 158.22 and 158.56. Further targets are 158.64 and 158.80.

The Elliott wave model envisages a new upward leg after the local correction ends. A breakout above resistance at 158.22 would provide further confirmation of stronger buying activity.

For the coming day, buying from the current area with a view to recovering towards the Envelope's upper boundary remains the preferred scenario. A decline below 157.44 would weaken the bullish structure and increase the likelihood of a correction. Until such a signal appears, buyers retain the advantage despite short-term volatility ahead of the Japanese central bank meeting.

USDJPY forecast scenario

GBPUSD forecast

Sterling continues to be influenced by US monetary policy, the state of the UK economy, and expectations concerning Bank of England decisions. The Fed's decision to maintain interest rates at 3.75–4.00% supports the dollar through relatively high yields on US assets. The resilience of the US economy and elevated inflation reduce the likelihood of imminent policy easing.

For sterling, the UK budget outlook, public finances, and consumer price trends are also important. Persistent inflationary pressure limits the BoE's scope to cut rates, although weak domestic demand and business caution create opposing risks.

Market participants are also assessing the implications of budget decisions for government borrowing and UK bond yields. Rising debt-servicing costs could put additional pressure on sterling. Today's US GDP and PCE releases could further alter the balance between the pound and the dollar. Without a marked improvement in the UK macroeconomic outlook, the fundamental backdrop remains moderately unfavourable for GBPUSD.

On the H4 chart, GBPUSD completed a downward move to 1.3272 after forming a peak around 1.3405. The subsequent recovery towards 1.3338 is viewed as a corrective leg within the prevailing downtrend.

The downward wave matrix, with its pivot at 1.3344, defines the nearest resistance area. Prices remain below this level, preserving sellers' technical advantage.

The Price Envelope suggests that the correction could end around its central line at 1.3338. A decline towards 1.3266 is then expected, with a breakout below support opening the way towards 1.3241 and 1.3139.

The Elliott wave model allows for another downward impulse once the local recovery ends. Holding below 1.3344 would confirm this scenario.

For the coming day, selling with a view to retesting 1.3266 remains preferable. Sustained consolidation below support would increase the likelihood of further declines towards 1.3139. A return above 1.3344 would signal a weakening of the current bearish structure and increase the likelihood of a recovery towards 1.3369.

GBPUSD forecast scenario

AUDUSD forecast

The Australian dollar is influenced by changing interest rate expectations in the US and Australia, China's economic conditions, and global demand for commodities. Following the Fed's decision to keep rates at 3.75–4.00%, the dollar received additional support from expectations of a prolonged period of tight monetary policy.

The Reserve Bank of Australia's actions remain significant for AUDUSD. Market participants are assessing the latest consumer inflation figures and their potential impact on future policy decisions. Persistent inflationary pressure could support the Australian dollar by limiting the scope for monetary easing.

Economic activity in China, Australia's largest trading partner, is another factor. Changes in demand for iron ore, industrial metals, and energy directly affect the outlook for Australian exports. Meanwhile, geopolitical uncertainty continues to limit investor interest in currencies sensitive to global risk appetite. Today's US GDP and PCE releases could increase AUDUSD volatility.

On the H4 chart, AUDUSD formed an upward corrective wave towards resistance at 0.7067. Having reached the Price Envelope's upper boundary, the correction may be nearing completion, setting the stage for a renewed decline.

The downward wave matrix, with its pivot at 0.7025, remains the main technical reference point. Consolidation is currently taking place above this level, but failure to establish a foothold above 0.7067 indicates limited buying potential.

The Elliott wave structure allows for a new downward impulse once the corrective phase ends. The initial target is 0.7003, followed by 0.6939 at the Envelope's lower boundary.

A breakout below 0.6939 would open the way towards 0.6878 and 0.6845. Conversely, sustained recovery above 0.7067 would weaken the bearish scenario.

For the upcoming trading session, selling with a target of 0.6939 remains preferable. Consolidation below the matrix pivot at 0.7025 would be the main confirmation. Until then, a brief consolidation near current levels remains possible.

AUDUSD forecast scenario

USDCAD forecast

The Canadian dollar gained another fundamental reference point following the Bank of Canada's decision on 28 October to raise its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%. The regulator noted the resilience of the global economy, elevated energy prices, and the risk of persistent inflationary pressures. Future decisions will depend on incoming data.

Meanwhile, the Fed maintained its interest rate within the 3.75–4.00% range, emphasising the resilience of the US economy. The interest rate differential continues to support the US dollar, although tighter Canadian monetary policy could limit USDCAD's upside potential.

The oil market is exerting a significant influence. Higher oil prices amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East support Canada's export revenues and provide favourable conditions for the national currency.

Investors are awaiting today's US GDP and PCE inflation releases. Strong readings could prompt a recovery in the US dollar. Upcoming Canadian economic growth data will also determine the sustainability of current demand for the Canadian dollar.

On the H4 chart, USDCAD formed a pronounced downward wave from the 1.4287 area to support at 1.3970. A subsequent recovery attempt towards 1.4076 ended with renewed selling.

The downward wave matrix, with its pivot at 1.4156, remains the main technical reference point. Prices are significantly below it, confirming the predominance of the medium-term downtrend.

The Price Envelope's lower boundary and an important support area lie around 1.3968–1.3970. A compact consolidation range followed by a recovery could form once the current impulse ends.

The Elliott wave structure allows for a corrective upward leg. The first confirmation would be a return above 1.4006, followed by a test of resistance at 1.4076 from below.

If this level is successfully overcome, the next targets will be 1.4126 and 1.4184. Failure to hold above 1.3968 would invalidate the immediate recovery scenario.

For the coming day, a corrective rise from the Envelope's lower boundary is preferred. However, buying carries elevated risk, as it runs counter to the main downtrend.

USDCAD forecast scenario

XAUUSD forecast

Gold remains highly sensitive to Fed decisions, US dollar movements, and changes in US government bond yields. Following its 28 October meeting, the Fed left interest rates in the 3.75–4.00% range, noting resilient economic growth and persistent inflationary pressure.

The absence of signals of imminent monetary easing limits gold's investment appeal because the metal pays no interest. Expectations of further rate increases if inflation remains elevated also add pressure.

Today, investors are focusing on the release of the US PCE price index. Higher inflation could strengthen the dollar and cause a further fall in gold prices. At the same time, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East sustain safe-haven demand and limit the depth of a potential correction.

Central bank purchases of the precious metal and physical demand from Asian buyers are additional factors. The fundamental backdrop therefore reflects opposing forces: restrictive US monetary policy and persistent safe-haven demand.

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD continues to develop a downward wave structure. After declining towards 3,975, the market recovered to the 4,080 area but failed to consolidate above nearby resistance.

The downward wave matrix, with its pivot at 4,145, remains the main technical reference point. As long as prices stay below this level, the medium-term structure continues to favour sellers.

The Elliott wave model allows for another downward impulse after the correction ends. The nearest support is located at 4,007, followed by a possible retest of 3,975.

Consolidation below 3,975 would open the way towards 3,931 and 3,896. The latter lies near the lower boundary of the extended Price Envelope.

The current recovery is viewed as a correction within the downtrend. Resistance at 4,066 limits the immediate upside potential.

For the upcoming trading session, a selling scenario remains the preferred outlook, with the expectation of a continued decline towards 3.931. A breakout below 4,007 would confirm strengthening bearish momentum, while consolidation above 4,066 would require a reassessment of the near-term trajectory.

XAUUSD forecast scenario

US 500 forecast

The US stock market continues to assess the outcome of the Fed meeting and the earnings outlook for major companies. The decision to keep interest rates at 3.75–4.00% was in line with investors' expectations, although comments on persistently elevated inflation limit the potential for an accelerated rise in stock indices.

Following trading on 28 October, the S&P 500 posted a moderate gain despite continued uncertainty over the Fed's future actions. Resilient consumer spending, investment in technology infrastructure, and expectations of higher corporate earnings are supporting the market.

Investors are also closely monitoring the financial results of major technology companies. Substantial spending on artificial intelligence creates opportunities for further growth but also raises expectations for future profitability.

Rising energy costs amid geopolitical tensions are another factor. High oil prices could reinforce inflation expectations and limit the scope for interest rate cuts. Today's US GDP and PCE releases could significantly influence short-term stock market movements.

On the H4 chart, US 500 formed an upward wave from support at 7,615 to the 7,787 area. The subsequent decline to 7,712 is regarded as a correction within an emerging bullish structure.

The upward wave matrix, with its pivot at 7,712, remains the main technical reference point. While prices hold above this level, a continued recovery remains highly likely.

The Elliott wave structure suggests another upward impulse once the local correction ends. The initial target is resistance at 7,750, followed by a move towards the Price Envelope's upper boundary at 7,809.

A breakout above 7,809 would open the way towards 7,901. Conversely, sustained declines below 7,712 would weaken the bullish structure and increase the likelihood of a retest of the 7,664 level.

For the upcoming trading session, buying remains preferable, anticipating a recovery towards 7.809. Consolidation above 7,750 would provide confirmation. Until this signal appears, a compact consolidation range may form above the matrix pivot.

US 500 forecast scenario

BTCUSD forecast

Bitcoin remains influenced by US monetary policy, changes in global risk appetite, and institutional demand for digital assets. The Fed's decision to hold interest rates within the 3.75–4.00% range maintains relatively tight financial conditions, limiting inflows of speculative capital.

Persistently elevated inflation and expectations of possible further monetary tightening increase the appeal of fixed-income dollar-denominated instruments. For the cryptocurrency market, these conditions create additional constraints, particularly during periods of declining liquidity.

Market participants are also monitoring capital flows through Bitcoin-linked exchange-traded investment products. Sustained institutional demand could support prices, although a reversal in fund flows raises the likelihood of sharp corrections.

US equity index movements, geopolitical uncertainty, and conditions in the cryptocurrency derivatives market are additional factors. Today's US GDP and PCE releases could increase BTCUSD volatility. With investors remaining cautious about risk, the fundamental backdrop is mixed.

On the H4 chart, BTCUSD formed a downward structure after completing an upward move around 85,000. The subsequent decline took prices to support at 79,714, where a corrective range began to form.

The downward wave matrix, with its pivot around 83,540, remains the main technical reference point. Prices are hovering below it, confirming the medium-term bearish direction.

The Elliott wave structure suggests a corrective recovery following a retest of the 79,714 support level. The Price Envelope's lower boundary around 79,225 is an additional reference point.

If this area holds, an upward leg towards 80,635 and 81,895 is possible, with the next recovery target at the 82,066 resistance level.

For the upcoming trading session, buying from the current area with a view to a corrective rise towards 82,066 is preferred. Consolidation above 80,635 would confirm the scenario. A sustained breakout below 79,714 would weaken the prospects for recovery and create conditions for further declines.

BTCUSD forecast scenario

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